Regional Migration Forecast: 6-13 May 2016
Continental Summary
Migration conditions will be generally more favorable across southern half of the West this week where moderate flights will feature Wilson’s Phalarope, Red-necked Phalarope, Black Tern, Willow Flycatcher, Yellow Warbler, MacGillivray’s Warbler, and Green-tailed Towhee, while midweek in the East will see the most extensive moderate to heavy flights of Black-crowned Night-Heron, Semipalmated Plover, Short-billed Dowitcher, Black Skimmer, Common Nighthawk, Black-billed Cuckoo, Acadian Flycatcher, Eastern Wood-Pewee, Canada Warbler, Blackpoll Warbler, and American Redstart in a pulse of significantly warmer air.
Wondering what species are migrating through right now? Check out our analysis for the past 7 days.
[animation name=”6-13-may-2016-forecast”]
Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in red will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where red and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.
We use data collected by eBird users help make more accurate forecasts. If you enjoy the predictions contained in these posts, please consider submitting your own bird sightings to eBird to even further improve the content. Every observation counts, whether it be a single bird at a feeder in your backyard, or an entire day spent in a national park. To get started with eBird, head on over to the site!
Additionally, please note that photographs and other digital media showing birds come from the Macaulay Library, which receives credit along with the photographer/observer in the media caption as part of a new initiative that allows public contribution, access and use of natural history media.
Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.
Quick Links to Regions
Upper Midwest and Northeast![]() |
Gulf Coast and Southeast![]() |
Great Plains![]() |
West![]() |
Upper Midwest and Northeast
Patches of favorable migration conditions finally arrive in the region to begin the weekend, and where these conditions are will occur moderate to heavy flights. In particular, note the favorable conditions forecast for Saturday night to the east of the northern Appalachians and Finger Lakes Region. More widespread movements of moderate to heavy intensity continue on Sunday and Monday nights, away from New England. These continue into Tuesday night, but become increasingly likely to be shut down by precipitation and, by Wednesday night, unfavorable winds. This several day period will provide some intriguing opportunities for more concentrations of birds as birds move in favorable conditions and quickly reach unfavorable conditions (e.g. opposing winds or rain). Birders should watch the distribution of precipitation, in particular, for such concentrations on the ground with its passing. A warmer air mass arrives to end the week, though its greatest effects will be in the next period – where favorable conditions do occur, expect moderate to heavy flights.
Species on the Move
[expand title=”Beginning Arrivals %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure
Ruddy Turnstone,5/6,5/13,5/23,6/2
Sanderling,5/6,5/13,5/22,6/3
White-rumped Sandpiper,5/6,5/15,5/26,6/7
Cedar Waxwing,5/7,5/17,6/5,-
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher,5/8,5/15,5/25,6/4
Willow Flycatcher,5/8,5/17,6/1,-
Alder Flycatcher,5/11,5/19,5/31,6/11
[/table]
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[expand title=”Peaking Arrivals” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure
Bay-breasted Warbler,4/28,5/6,5/15,5/26
American Redstart,4/27,5/6,5/18,5/28
Acadian Flycatcher,4/26,5/6,6/3,-
Ruby-throated Hummingbird,4/26,5/7,5/21,-
Sedge Wren,4/22,5/7,6/12,-
Black-crowned Night-Heron,3/24,5/7,-,-
Philadelphia Vireo,5/1,5/8,5/18,5/28
Wilson’s Warbler,5/1,5/8,5/18,5/28
Short-billed Dowitcher,4/30,5/8,5/18,5/29
Common Tern,4/28,5/8,-,-
Blackpoll Warbler,5/1,5/9,5/18,5/29
Black Tern,4/30,5/9,5/22,-
Red-eyed Vireo,4/27,5/9,5/26,-
Canada Warbler,5/3,5/10,5/19,5/29
Semipalmated Plover,5/2,5/10,5/20,6/1
Yellow-billed Cuckoo,4/27,5/10,5/31,-
Dunlin,5/4,5/11,5/20,5/31
Common Nighthawk,5/3,5/11,5/21,5/31
Black-billed Cuckoo,5/1,5/11,5/25,6/4
Olive-sided Flycatcher,5/5,5/12,5/22,6/1
Black-bellied Plover,5/5,5/12,5/22,6/2
Black Skimmer,5/3,5/12,-,-
Least Tern,5/3,5/12,-,-
Mourning Warbler,5/5,5/13,5/23,6/1
Ruddy Turnstone,5/6,5/13,5/23,6/2
Sanderling,5/6,5/13,5/22,6/3
Semipalmated Sandpiper,5/5,5/13,5/24,6/4
Eastern Wood-Pewee,5/4,5/13,5/28,-
[/table]
[/expand]
[expand title=”Beginning Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure
Worm-eating Warbler,4/16,4/24,5/6,-
Solitary Sandpiper,4/20,4/27,5/7,5/18
Sora,4/12,4/24,5/7,5/20
Virginia Rail,4/3,4/15,5/7,-
Prairie Warbler,4/14,4/24,5/7,-
Orange-crowned Warbler,4/21,4/29,5/8,5/19
White-crowned Sparrow,4/23,4/29,5/8,5/19
Prothonotary Warbler,4/9,4/21,5/8,5/22
Red-winged Blackbird,-,3/10,5/8,-
Summer Tanager,4/19,4/27,5/9,5/17
Black-and-white Warbler,4/21,4/29,5/9,5/19
Nashville Warbler,4/23,4/30,5/9,5/19
Red-headed Woodpecker,4/19,4/28,5/9,-
Blue-winged Warbler,4/20,4/28,5/10,5/18
Black-throated Green Warbler,4/22,4/30,5/10,5/20
Northern Waterthrush,4/22,4/30,5/10,5/21
Northern Parula,4/22,4/30,5/10,5/21
Forster’s Tern,3/28,4/29,5/10,5/24
Tree Swallow,3/21,4/3,5/10,-
Kentucky Warbler,4/18,4/27,5/10,-
Hooded Warbler,4/18,4/27,5/10,-
Black-throated Blue Warbler,4/25,5/1,5/11,5/21
Lincoln’s Sparrow,4/24,5/1,5/11,5/22
Green Heron,4/14,4/25,5/11,-
Rose-breasted Grosbeak,4/23,5/1,5/12,5/21
Golden-winged Warbler,4/25,5/2,5/12,5/22
Cape May Warbler,4/26,5/2,5/12,5/22
House Wren,4/18,4/27,5/12,-
Cerulean Warbler,4/19,4/28,5/12,-
Yellow-throated Vireo,4/21,4/30,5/13,-
Orchard Oriole,4/21,4/30,5/13,-
Wood Thrush,4/22,5/1,5/13,-
Ovenbird,4/23,5/1,5/13,-
[/table]
[/expand]
[expand title=”Ending Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure
Yellow-throated Warbler,3/29,4/9,4/24,5/7
Ruby-crowned Kinglet,4/2,4/12,4/25,5/8
Sharp-shinned Hawk,3/24,4/10,4/22,5/9
White-throated Sparrow,4/9,4/18,4/28,5/11
Cooper’s Hawk,3/16,4/9,4/24,5/13
[/table]
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Gulf Coast and Southeast
After the passage of a substantial cold front, the region is noticeably quiet east of the Mississippi River to begin the period. Gradually warmer conditions with more favorable southerly winds build, and with them come moderate to very heavy flights. By Sunday night, these flights will be widespread across the region. The extent and intensity of flights continues through Wednesday, but increasing threat of precipitation in many areas will shut down movements if and where it were to occur. To end the period, moderate to heavy flights will occur west of the Mississippi River and in the Florida Peninsula; but flights will be minimal elsewhere with the passage of a frontal boundary. Note, Sunday evening to Thursday morning is the best window of the period for inbound trans-Gulf migration, so any precipitation at the coast or near the coast during this window could create local fallouts and concentrations.
[expand title=”Beginning Arrivals %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure
[/table]
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[expand title=”Peaking Arrivals” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure
[/table]
[/expand]
[expand title=”Beginning Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure
Dickcissel,4/13,4/22,5/6,5/17
Chestnut-sided Warbler,4/16,4/25,5/6,5/17
Magnolia Warbler,4/19,4/27,5/6,5/17
American Redstart,4/18,4/27,5/6,5/18
Great Crested Flycatcher,3/27,4/12,5/6,-
Mississippi Kite,4/13,4/23,5/7,-
Least Flycatcher,4/21,4/29,5/9,5/20
Wilson’s Warbler,4/22,4/30,5/9,5/20
Eastern Wood-Pewee,4/13,4/26,5/10,5/22
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher,3/15,3/26,5/10,-
Cliff Swallow,3/15,4/1,5/10,-
Canada Warbler,4/23,5/1,5/11,5/22
Chimney Swift,3/23,4/3,5/11,-
Mourning Warbler,4/24,5/1,5/12,5/23
Olive-sided Flycatcher,4/22,5/1,5/12,5/24
Western Kingbird,4/7,4/17,5/12,-
Semipalmated Sandpiper,3/28,4/14,5/13,5/29
[/table]
[/expand]
[expand title=”Ending Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure
Greater Yellowlegs,-,-,3/31,5/6
Blue-winged Teal,3/2,3/16,4/5,5/6
Lincoln’s Sparrow,-,-,4/15,5/6
Long-billed Dowitcher,-,-,4/22,5/6
Peregrine Falcon,-,-,4/23,5/6
Scarlet Tanager,4/6,4/15,4/26,5/6
Short-billed Dowitcher,3/19,4/7,4/20,5/7
White-crowned Sparrow,-,-,4/23,5/7
Black-bellied Plover,4/6,4/14,4/24,5/7
Gray Kingbird,4/6,4/15,4/27,5/7
Rose-breasted Grosbeak,4/10,4/17,4/27,5/8
Savannah Sparrow,-,-,-,5/8
Nashville Warbler,4/4,4/15,4/26,5/9
Black-and-white Warbler,3/10,4/17,4/26,5/9
Yellow-headed Blackbird,4/7,4/15,4/27,5/9
Baltimore Oriole,4/9,4/17,4/28,5/9
Cape May Warbler,4/10,4/17,4/28,5/9
Lesser Yellowlegs,3/11,4/15,4/24,5/10
Gray Catbird,4/9,4/17,4/27,5/10
Ovenbird,4/8,4/17,4/29,5/10
Golden-winged Warbler,4/11,4/18,4/29,5/10
Northern Parula,-,3/2,4/17,5/11
Solitary Sandpiper,4/1,4/15,4/27,5/11
Orchard Oriole,3/30,4/10,4/28,5/11
Tennessee Warbler,4/5,4/15,4/28,5/11
Northern Waterthrush,4/9,4/17,4/28,5/11
Black-throated Blue Warbler,4/11,4/19,4/30,5/11
Black-throated Green Warbler,4/7,4/17,4/29,5/12
Clay-colored Sparrow,3/25,4/19,4/29,5/12
Gray-cheeked Thrush,4/11,4/19,4/30,5/12
Veery,4/12,4/19,5/1,5/12
Pine Siskin,-,-,-,5/13
[/table]
[/expand]
Great Plains
Largely favorable conditions for moderate to heavy flights on Friday night in the central and southern Plains spread north for the remainder of the weekend. Similar conditions occur, albeit with increasingly patchy distribution, through Monday night, with moderate to heavy flights continuing where conditions are favorable. Low pressure moving into and across the region will shut down most movements on Tuesday and Wednesday, but its passage by Thursday night usher another wave of moderate to heavy flights to end the period. However, the northern plains will likely not participate in these end of the work week flights, as northerly and easterly flow keeps birds on the ground.
Species on the Move
[expand title=”Beginning Arrivals %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure
Alder Flycatcher,5/6,5/13,5/22,6/1
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher,5/7,5/14,5/23,6/2
[/table]
[/expand]
[expand title=”Peaking Arrivals” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure
Ovenbird,4/28,5/6,5/16,5/26
Philadelphia Vireo,4/29,5/6,5/16,5/27
Bell’s Vireo,4/24,5/6,6/4,-
Black-bellied Plover,4/28,5/7,5/16,5/28
Stilt Sandpiper,4/29,5/7,5/17,5/28
Scarlet Tanager,4/25,5/7,5/21,6/4
Eastern Wood-Pewee,4/28,5/7,5/20,-
Black-headed Grosbeak,4/26,5/7,6/5,-
Chestnut-sided Warbler,4/30,5/8,5/17,5/28
American Redstart,5/1,5/8,5/18,5/28
White-rumped Sandpiper,4/30,5/8,5/19,5/30
Veery,4/30,5/8,5/18,-
Bobolink,4/30,5/8,6/16,-
Blackburnian Warbler,5/1,5/9,5/18,5/28
Magnolia Warbler,5/1,5/9,5/18,5/28
Lark Bunting,4/27,5/9,5/31,-
Dunlin,4/12,5/10,5/18,5/29
Cape May Warbler,5/3,5/10,5/19,5/29
Olive-sided Flycatcher,5/3,5/10,5/20,5/31
Acadian Flycatcher,4/29,5/10,5/22,6/2
Black Tern,5/2,5/10,5/21,-
Yellow-breasted Chat,4/25,5/10,6/3,-
Ruddy Turnstone,5/4,5/11,5/20,5/30
Mourning Warbler,5/4,5/11,5/20,5/30
Red-necked Phalarope,5/4,5/11,5/21,5/31
Canada Warbler,5/5,5/12,5/21,5/30
Alder Flycatcher,5/6,5/13,5/22,6/1
Black-capped Vireo,4/23,5/13,6/4,-
Willow Flycatcher,5/4,5/13,6/12,-
[/table]
[/expand]
[expand title=”Beginning Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure
Orange-crowned Warbler,4/18,4/26,5/6,5/17
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher,3/25,4/3,5/6,5/18
Northern Parula,3/28,4/5,5/6,5/19
Northern Rough-winged Swallow,3/29,4/16,5/6,-
Forster’s Tern,4/9,4/19,5/6,-
Prothonotary Warbler,4/6,4/21,5/7,5/21
Eastern Phoebe,-,3/2,5/7,-
Wood Duck,3/8,3/25,5/7,-
Louisiana Waterthrush,3/24,3/31,5/7,-
Chipping Sparrow,3/31,4/24,5/7,-
Brown Thrasher,4/5,4/25,5/7,-
Palm Warbler,4/20,4/28,5/8,5/18
Purple Martin,3/19,4/7,5/8,-
Nashville Warbler,4/22,4/29,5/9,5/19
Clay-colored Sparrow,4/22,4/29,5/9,5/19
Blue-headed Vireo,4/23,4/30,5/9,5/19
Least Sandpiper,4/17,4/28,5/9,5/23
Eastern Towhee,3/22,4/28,5/9,-
Black-and-white Warbler,4/23,4/30,5/10,5/20
Northern Waterthrush,4/24,5/1,5/11,5/22
Spotted Sandpiper,4/17,4/28,5/11,5/24
Brown-headed Cowbird,3/17,4/22,5/11,-
Summer Tanager,4/19,4/28,5/11,-
Golden-winged Warbler,4/26,5/2,5/12,5/22
Black-throated Green Warbler,4/23,5/1,5/12,5/23
Pectoral Sandpiper,3/13,3/25,5/12,5/28
Semipalmated Sandpiper,4/8,4/17,5/12,5/29
House Wren,4/15,4/26,5/12,-
Wood Thrush,4/24,5/2,5/13,5/24
Swainson’s Thrush,4/24,5/2,5/13,5/24
Rose-breasted Grosbeak,4/25,5/2,5/13,5/24
Gray-cheeked Thrush,4/26,5/3,5/13,5/24
Green Heron,4/11,4/23,5/13,-
Kentucky Warbler,4/20,4/30,5/13,-
Indigo Bunting,4/22,4/30,5/13,-
Yellow-throated Vireo,4/22,5/1,5/13,-
[/table]
[/expand]
[expand title=”Ending Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure
American Pipit,-,-,4/21,5/6
Savannah Sparrow,3/18,4/15,4/25,5/8
Ruddy Duck,-,3/18,4/5,5/10
Hermit Thrush,3/23,4/5,4/23,5/10
Lesser Yellowlegs,4/2,4/14,4/26,5/10
Blue-winged Teal,3/11,3/23,4/21,5/12
[/table]
[/expand]
West
Light to moderate flights will occur across the southern half of the region to begin the weekend. Favorable conditions for more widespread flights build by Saturday night, but then become increasingly patchy for the first half of the work week through Wednesday. During this window flights will be scattered and light to moderate, localized primarily to the Desert Southwest and portions of the Great Basin and Rockies. Wednesday night sees favorable conditions in the Desert Southwest and Rockies, primarily, with slightly more extensive movements on Thursday night in a more diverse array of locations including the Great Basin and Central Valley of California.
Species on the Move
[expand title=”Beginning Arrivals %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure
Gray Catbird,5/6,5/15,5/30,-
Cordilleran Flycatcher,5/6,5/22,-,-
Eastern Kingbird,5/7,5/17,6/4,-
Willow Flycatcher,5/12,5/23,6/7,-
[/table]
[/expand]
[expand title=”Peaking Arrivals” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure
MacGillivray’s Warbler,4/22,5/6,5/24,-
Yellow Warbler,4/20,5/7,5/21,-
Black Tern,4/25,5/7,5/24,-
Swainson’s Thrush,4/27,5/9,-,-
Blue Grosbeak,4/17,5/12,5/26,-
[/table]
[/expand]
[expand title=”Beginning Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure
Green-tailed Towhee,4/17,4/27,5/6,-
Vaux’s Swift,4/11,4/22,5/7,5/16
Northern Rough-winged Swallow,3/2,4/18,5/7,-
Hermit Warbler,4/13,4/24,5/7,-
Townsend’s Warbler,4/20,4/28,5/8,5/21
American White Pelican,3/23,4/5,5/8,-
Forster’s Tern,4/12,4/24,5/9,-
Virginia’s Warbler,4/16,4/26,5/9,-
Sora,4/18,4/28,5/10,5/23
Violet-green Swallow,-,3/4,5/10,-
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher,3/20,4/15,5/10,-
Cassin’s Vireo,3/28,4/19,5/10,-
Wilson’s Phalarope,4/18,4/28,5/11,5/22
Wilson’s Warbler,4/11,4/24,5/11,5/27
Tree Swallow,3/2,4/2,5/11,-
Red-necked Phalarope,4/15,4/28,5/12,5/27
Hammond’s Flycatcher,4/6,4/23,5/12,-
Lark Sparrow,4/12,4/25,5/12,-
Green Heron,4/3,4/18,5/13,-
Chipping Sparrow,4/17,4/29,5/13,-
[/table]
[/expand]
[expand title=”Ending Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure
Marbled Godwit,-,4/16,4/24,5/6
Short-billed Dowitcher,4/1,4/16,4/25,5/7
Black-bellied Plover,-,-,4/22,5/8
Lesser Yellowlegs,4/4,4/14,4/25,5/9
Dunlin,4/10,4/17,4/26,5/9
Nashville Warbler,4/2,4/13,4/27,5/9
Willet,4/10,4/17,4/27,5/9
Least Sandpiper,4/10,4/17,4/27,5/9
Cooper’s Hawk,-,3/3,3/29,5/10
Western Sandpiper,4/9,4/17,4/28,5/10
Whimbrel,3/18,4/19,4/28,5/10
Eared Grebe,-,4/7,4/21,5/11
Semipalmated Plover,4/11,4/19,4/29,5/11
Solitary Sandpiper,4/12,4/21,5/1,5/13
[/table]
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Farnsworth and Van Doren
Scientific Team
BirdCast is made possible by the participating scientists at the below institutions, and many other contributors.












