Regional Migration Forecast: 30 October – 6 November 2015

Hooded Merganser, Ryan Schain

Continental Summary

Favorable conditions from the weekend through early week in the West will see light to locally moderate flights of Canada Goose, Common Merganser, Ring-billed Gull, Short-eared Owl, Marsh Wren, and Golden-crowned Sparrow, while a moderate to heavy pulse Friday along the Atlantic coast and along the Canadian border on Wednesday and Thursday nights will feature Snow Goose, Tundra Swan, Redhead, Ring-necked Duck, American Pipit, Common Redpoll, and assorted western goodies.

Wondering what species are migrating through right now? Check out our analysis for the past 7 days.

[animation name=”forecast-30-october-6-november-2015″]

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in blue will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where blue and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

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Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and Northeast	Gulf Coast and Southeast
Great Plains	West

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Moderate to heavy flights come to many areas east of the Appalachians on Friday night, before most of the region gets rather quiet in the face of an approaching period of warmer air from the southwest. Southwesterly flow is forecast to prevail for much of the week, making conditions for nocturnal migration unfavorable; movements will be mostly light to locally moderate. This southwesterly flow may be the harbinger, however, of later season western vagrants typical in such flow, such as Franklin’s Gull, Cave Swallow, Ash-throated Flycatcher, among other species. Not until the end of the period does the region see favorable conditions for nocturnal flights, and these will be restricted again to coastal reaches primarily from New York north through New England and also in the Mississippi River valley (where another frontal boundary will be passing). Note that some nights during the period may see larger flights if winds aloft are lighter than forecast.

Cave Swallow, Tom Johnson

Species on the Move

[expand title=”Peaking Arrivals” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
White-winged Crossbill,*,18-Oct,31-Oct,17-Nov,2-Dec,12-Dec
Bufflehead,***,18-Oct,1-Nov,21-Nov,4-Dec,13-Dec
Cave Swallow,*,21-Oct,2-Nov,17-Nov,3-Dec,13-Dec
Red-throated Loon,**,16-Oct,3-Nov,22-Nov,5-Dec,15-Dec
Hooded Merganser,***,20-Oct,4-Nov,26-Nov,9-Dec,24-Dec
Red-breasted Merganser,***,18-Oct,5-Nov,28-Nov,-,-
Tundra Swan,**,25-Oct,6-Nov,22-Nov,5-Dec,13-Dec
Harlequin Duck,*,24-Oct,6-Nov,24-Nov,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Beginning Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart
Northern Goshawk,*,3-Oct,16-Oct,30-Oct,16-Nov,28-Nov
Northern Pintail,*,1-Sep,3-Oct,31-Oct,20-Nov,11-Dec
Pied-billed Grebe,***,12-Sep,10-Oct,31-Oct,22-Nov,11-Dec
Dunlin,*,15-Sep,9-Oct,31-Oct,20-Nov,6-Dec
American Wigeon,*,9-Sep,5-Oct,1-Nov,23-Nov,19-Dec
Northern Saw-whet Owl,*,3-Oct,16-Oct,1-Nov,15-Nov,24-Nov
Golden Eagle,*,8-Oct,19-Oct,2-Nov,16-Nov,27-Nov
Evening Grosbeak,*,8-Oct,20-Oct,4-Nov,18-Nov,28-Nov
American Coot,***,26-Sep,14-Oct,6-Nov,26-Nov,20-Dec
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Ending Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart[attr style=”color:green”]
Brown Creeper,**,15-Sep,28-Sep,17-Oct,30-Oct,9-Nov
Ruby-crowned Kinglet,***,16-Sep,28-Sep,14-Oct,30-Oct,11-Nov
Chipping Sparrow,***,18-Sep,27-Sep,9-Oct,30-Oct,13-Nov
Swamp Sparrow,***,16-Sep,28-Sep,14-Oct,30-Oct,12-Nov
White-crowned Sparrow,***,19-Sep,30-Sep,15-Oct,30-Oct,10-Nov
Wood Duck,***,Before July 1,6-Jul,18-Aug,31-Oct,21-Nov
Turkey Vulture,***,16-Aug,5-Sep,28-Sep,31-Oct,25-Nov
Winter Wren,**,14-Sep,28-Sep,17-Oct,31-Oct,12-Nov
Le Conte’s Sparrow,*,17-Sep,29-Sep,15-Oct,31-Oct,12-Nov
Cooper’s Hawk,***,3-Aug,10-Sep,7-Oct,2-Nov,16-Nov
Wilson’s Snipe,*,6-Aug,1-Oct,16-Oct,2-Nov,19-Nov
Golden-crowned Kinglet,***,18-Sep,30-Sep,18-Oct,2-Nov,15-Nov
White-throated Sparrow,***,16-Sep,29-Sep,19-Oct,2-Nov,13-Nov
Eastern Meadowlark,**,17-Sep,29-Sep,16-Oct,2-Nov,17-Nov
Field Sparrow,***,21-Sep,2-Oct,16-Oct,3-Nov,15-Nov
Hermit Thrush,***,20-Sep,3-Oct,19-Oct,5-Nov,17-Nov
Saltmarsh Sparrow,**,15-Sep,10-Oct,20-Oct,5-Nov,15-Nov
[/table]
[/expand]

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Mostly unfavorable conditions for migration are forecast across the region for this period. Although local moderate to heavy flights will occur Friday night in the southeastern coastal Plains, Sunday night in Texas, and late in the period back in the southeastern coastal plain, much of the region will experience southerly flow that will not be conducive to much movement at night. Additionally, several areas of precipitation are forecast during the period, further dampening the intensities and extents of any flights.

Ring-necked Duck, Ryan Schain

[expand title=”Beginning Arrivals %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Bonaparte’s Gull,**,30-Oct,14-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Tundra Swan,*,30-Oct,30-Dec,After Dec 31,-,-
Bufflehead,***,31-Oct,12-Nov,5-Dec,-,-
Common Merganser,*,4-Nov,1-Dec,After Dec 31,-,-
Red-breasted Merganser,**,4-Nov,22-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Harris’s Sparrow,**,6-Nov,23-Nov,15-Dec,-,-
Red-throated Loon,*,6-Nov,30-Dec,After Dec 31,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

Great Plains

The nights of moderate to heavy flights will be few and far between this period, with such intensities restricted to local movements primarily on Saturday and then again mid week. The first region wide extents of migration will not occur until the very end of the period, when the passage of a strong frontal boundary will set the stage for the fall’s last major and diverse migration event in the region.

Redhead, Ryan Schain

Species on the Move

[expand title=”Beginning Arrivals %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Common Goldeneye,****!,1-Nov,13-Nov,3-Dec,-,-
Common Merganser,***,1-Nov,14-Nov,8-Dec,-,-
Snowy Owl,*,5-Nov,19-Dec,After Dec 31,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Peaking Arrivals” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Hooded Merganser,***,17-Oct,30-Oct,20-Nov,2-Dec,11-Dec
Greater Scaup,*,19-Oct,1-Nov,16-Nov,1-Dec,10-Dec
Snow Goose,***,18-Oct,1-Nov,20-Nov,4-Dec,15-Dec
Common Redpoll,*,16-Oct,2-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Ross’s Goose,**,19-Oct,2-Nov,23-Nov,7-Dec,19-Dec
Bufflehead,***,20-Oct,3-Nov,19-Nov,3-Dec,13-Dec
Bald Eagle,***,16-Oct,5-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Black Scoter,*,24-Oct,5-Nov,19-Nov,4-Dec,15-Dec
Red-breasted Merganser,***,25-Oct,5-Nov,20-Nov,4-Dec,13-Dec
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Beginning Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart
Fox Sparrow,***,2-Oct,14-Oct,30-Oct,12-Nov,24-Nov
Sandhill Crane,***,5-Oct,16-Oct,30-Oct,15-Nov,25-Nov
Tundra Swan,**,28-Sep,15-Oct,30-Oct,18-Nov,30-Nov
Pied-billed Grebe,***,30-Aug,12-Sep,31-Oct,20-Nov,6-Dec
Western Grebe,**,2-Sep,18-Oct,31-Oct,19-Nov,3-Dec
Greater White-fronted Goose,**,6-Oct,18-Oct,3-Nov,15-Nov,-
American Wigeon,***,5-Oct,18-Oct,4-Nov,20-Nov,3-Dec
Green-winged Teal,***,7-Oct,19-Oct,4-Nov,19-Nov,2-Dec
Northern Pintail,***,8-Oct,20-Oct,4-Nov,19-Nov,1-Dec
Ruddy Duck,***,8-Oct,20-Oct,4-Nov,20-Nov,4-Dec
Horned Grebe,***,7-Oct,20-Oct,6-Nov,24-Nov,9-Dec
Northern Shoveler,***,11-Oct,22-Oct,6-Nov,22-Nov,5-Dec
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Ending Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart[attr style=”color:green”]
Savannah Sparrow,***,14-Sep,27-Sep,13-Oct,30-Oct,12-Nov
Chipping Sparrow,***,-,-,1-Sep,31-Oct,14-Nov
Common Grackle,***,12-Sep,23-Sep,8-Oct,31-Oct,16-Nov
Le Conte’s Sparrow,***,21-Sep,1-Oct,17-Oct,1-Nov,12-Nov
Swamp Sparrow,***,18-Sep,30-Sep,17-Oct,2-Nov,13-Nov
Killdeer,***,Before July 1,4-Jul,2-Aug,3-Nov,28-Nov
Western Meadowlark,***,11-Sep,21-Sep,8-Oct,3-Nov,19-Nov
White-crowned Sparrow,***,16-Sep,30-Sep,18-Oct,3-Nov,15-Nov
White-throated Sparrow,***,13-Sep,28-Sep,18-Oct,3-Nov,16-Nov
Wilson’s Snipe,**,7-Aug,3-Oct,18-Oct,4-Nov,16-Nov
Eastern Meadowlark,***,17-Sep,1-Oct,19-Oct,5-Nov,17-Nov
Field Sparrow,***,18-Sep,30-Sep,18-Oct,6-Nov,17-Nov
[/table]
[/expand]

West

Favorable conditions become increasingly rare over the first half of the forecast period, as light to locally moderate flights become similarly rare. Most movements will be restricted to the Desert Southwest on the weekend, with a slow period to follow as southerly winds and scattered precipitation spread into the mountainous west. By Tuesday and Wednesday a new area of favorable conditions builds into the region west of the Rockies, where light to locally moderate migration will return. These conditions persist locally in the Desert Southwest and in California to end the period, where localized flights will also persist.

Canada Goose, Ryan Schain

Species on the Move

[expand title=”Beginning Arrivals %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Common Goldeneye,***,30-Oct,11-Nov,2-Dec,-,-
Snowy Owl,*,4-Nov,16-Nov,8-Dec,-,-
Glaucous Gull,*,6-Nov,1-Dec,After Dec 31,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Peaking Arrivals” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Rough-legged Hawk,*,7-Oct,30-Oct,After Dec 31,-,-
Rusty Blackbird,*,16-Oct,30-Oct,18-Nov,2-Dec,12-Dec
Ferruginous Hawk,*,2-Oct,31-Oct,After Dec 31,-,-
Common Merganser,*,1-Oct,1-Nov,15-Dec,-,-
Canada Goose,***,1-Oct,1-Nov,25-Nov,-,-
Pacific Loon,*,18-Oct,1-Nov,17-Nov,-,-
Red-breasted Merganser,**,17-Oct,1-Nov,21-Nov,-,-
Ring-billed Gull,***,Before July 1,2-Nov,22-Nov,5-Dec,-
Hooded Merganser,***,18-Oct,2-Nov,26-Nov,6-Dec,14-Dec
Tundra Swan,**,21-Oct,3-Nov,22-Nov,-,-
Short-eared Owl,*,20-Oct,5-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Brant,*,23-Oct,6-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Trumpeter Swan,*,24-Oct,6-Nov,25-Nov,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

Scientific Team

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