Regional Migration Forecast: 20-27 November 2015

Bohemian Waxwing, Chris Wood

Continental Summary

A late period arrival of favorable conditions will see light to moderate movements, primarily waterfowl, in the West, while the first half of the period in the East will see moderate flights scattered across the region.

Wondering what species are migrating through right now? Check out our analysis for the past 7 days.

[animation name=”forecast-20-27-november-2015″]

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in blue will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where blue and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

We use data collected by eBird users help make more accurate forecasts. If you enjoy the predictions contained in these posts, please consider submitting your own bird sightings to eBird to even further improve the content. Every observation counts, whether it be a single bird at a feeder in your backyard, or an entire day spent in a national park. To get started with eBird, head on over to the site!

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and Northeast	Gulf Coast and Southeast
Great Plains	West

Upper Midwest and Northeast

With the passage of another cold front and the arrival of more seasonally appropriate temperatures, the weekend will bring moderate to locally heavy flights in the Upper Midwest and New England. Patches of favorable conditions persist in the region and span the remainder of period from Sunday through Thanksgiving, and where conditions are favorable light to moderate flights will continue. Note in particular another substantial frontal boundary is forecast to pass through the region later in the work week, and birders should watch carefully for possible displacements of late season western vagrants. Additionally, coastal interests should monitor the winds after Thanksgiving, as coastal flights of waterfowl and near shore pelagic birds are likely on the following Friday and Saturday.

Pied-billed Grebe, Ryan Schain

Species on the Move

[expand title=”Peaking Arrivals” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Snow Goose,*,18-Sep,21-Nov,26-Dec,-,-
Common Merganser,**,13-Oct,25-Nov,22-Dec,After Dec 31,-
Snowy Owl,*,8-Nov,25-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Short-eared Owl,*,11-Oct,27-Nov,18-Dec,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Beginning Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart
Bufflehead,***,18-Oct,1-Nov,21-Nov,4-Dec,13-Dec
Tundra Swan,**,25-Oct,6-Nov,22-Nov,5-Dec,13-Dec
Red-throated Loon,*,16-Oct,3-Nov,22-Nov,5-Dec,15-Dec
Rufous Hummingbird,*,27-Oct,8-Nov,22-Nov,6-Dec,16-Dec
Ash-throated Flycatcher,*,30-Oct,10-Nov,25-Nov,11-Dec,-
Hooded Merganser,**,20-Oct,4-Nov,26-Nov,9-Dec,24-Dec
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Ending Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart[attr style=”color:green”]
Green-winged Teal,***,8-Aug,22-Aug,27-Oct,22-Nov,10-Dec
Pied-billed Grebe,***,12-Sep,10-Oct,31-Oct,22-Nov,11-Dec
Red-necked Grebe,*,6-Oct,19-Oct,7-Nov,22-Nov,8-Dec
Snow Bunting,**,12-Oct,23-Oct,9-Nov,22-Nov,1-Dec
American Wigeon,*,9-Sep,5-Oct,1-Nov,23-Nov,19-Dec
Surf Scoter,*,23-Sep,11-Oct,8-Nov,26-Nov,8-Dec
White-winged Scoter,*,1-Oct,19-Oct,10-Nov,26-Nov,8-Dec
American Coot,***,26-Sep,14-Oct,6-Nov,26-Nov,20-Dec
Western Kingbird,*,15-Oct,26-Oct,9-Nov,26-Nov,7-Dec
Fox Sparrow,***,30-Sep,17-Oct,8-Nov,26-Nov,10-Dec
Ring-necked Duck,**,5-Oct,21-Oct,12-Nov,27-Nov,12-Dec
[/table]
[/expand]

Gulf Coast and Southeast

The last moderate and locally heavy flights of the season occur this period, first with a flight in the southeastern coastal plain on Friday night and then with flights that are more widespread from the southern Appalachians through the Texas coastal Plains for Saturday through Monday. Light to locally moderate flights continue through the remainder of the period locally in the southeastern coastal Plain as the remainder of the region sees largely unfavorable conditions for late season movements.

Long-tailed Duck, Chris Wood

[expand title=”Beginning Arrivals %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Short-eared Owl,*,21-Nov,4-Dec,-,-,-
American Woodcock,*,22-Nov,3-Dec,24-Dec,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Peaking Arrivals” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Red-breasted Merganser,**,4-Nov,22-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Harris’s Sparrow,*,6-Nov,23-Nov,15-Dec,-,-
Common Goldeneye,*,12-Nov,27-Nov,21-Dec,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

Great Plains

Scattered moderate flights punctuate the weekend as a disturbance clears out of the region. However, the days that follow see a period of largely unfavorable conditions that will not spawn much late season movement. The arrival of more favorable conditions comes just before Thanksgiving, when light to locally moderate flights, primarily of waterfowl and late season sparrows and allies, will occur.

Harris’s Sparrow, Tom Johnson

Species on the Move

[expand title=”Peaking Arrivals” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Trumpeter Swan,*,17-Nov,25-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Ending Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart[attr style=”color:green”]
American Coot,***,11-Sep,3-Oct,29-Oct,21-Nov,10-Dec
Northern Shoveler,***,11-Oct,22-Oct,6-Nov,22-Nov,5-Dec
Double-crested Cormorant,***,8-Sep,25-Sep,22-Oct,24-Nov,17-Dec
Horned Grebe,***,7-Oct,20-Oct,6-Nov,24-Nov,9-Dec
Redhead,***,10-Oct,22-Oct,7-Nov,24-Nov,8-Dec
Whooping Crane,*,13-Oct,24-Oct,8-Nov,24-Nov,6-Dec
Common Loon,**,12-Oct,24-Oct,10-Nov,26-Nov,10-Dec
Canvasback,***,13-Oct,25-Oct,11-Nov,27-Nov,8-Dec
[/table]
[/expand]

West

The beginning and end of the period will see favorable conditions across the southern half of the region, with more favorable conditions extending to more areas late in the period. These conditions will spawn locally light to moderate flights, primarily waterfowl. Of particular note, birders in the southern Rockies should watch for more intense flights on Friday night; birders in the Pacific Northwest should watch for more intense flights on Tuesday night.

Western Grebe, Chris Wood

Species on the Move

[expand title=”Peaking Arrivals” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Bohemian Waxwing,*,22-Oct,22-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Beginning Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart
American Wigeon,*,3-Sep,19-Oct,20-Nov,4-Dec,16-Dec
Ring-billed Gull,**,Before July 1,2-Nov,22-Nov,5-Dec,-
Bufflehead,**,15-Oct,29-Oct,22-Nov,3-Dec,10-Dec
Cackling Goose,*,18-Sep,5-Oct,22-Nov,7-Dec,19-Dec
Canvasback,*,11-Oct,28-Oct,23-Nov,4-Dec,11-Dec
Herring Gull,*,22-Sep,24-Oct,26-Nov,11-Dec,After Dec 31
Hooded Merganser,*,18-Oct,2-Nov,26-Nov,6-Dec,14-Dec
Ross’s Goose,*,24-Oct,7-Nov,26-Nov,7-Dec,14-Dec
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Ending Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart[attr style=”color:green”]
Dunlin,*,22-Sep,11-Oct,6-Nov,24-Nov,8-Dec
Western Grebe,***,15-Sep,14-Oct,5-Nov,24-Nov,9-Dec
California Gull,**,Before July 1,14-Jul,9-Nov,26-Nov,10-Dec
American Tree Sparrow,*,11-Oct,24-Oct,15-Nov,26-Nov,7-Dec
Black Turnstone,*,3-Jul,19-Jul,14-Sep,26-Nov,7-Dec
Bonaparte’s Gull,***,13-Oct,24-Oct,10-Nov,26-Nov,9-Dec
Horned Grebe,**,21-Sep,18-Oct,11-Nov,26-Nov,6-Dec
White-winged Scoter,*,20-Sep,22-Oct,10-Nov,26-Nov,7-Dec
[/table]
[/expand]

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Farnsworth and Van Doren

Scientific Team

BirdCast is made possible by the participating scientists at the below institutions, and many other contributors.

See More Contributors