Regional Migration Forecast: 16-23 October 2015

Yellow-rumped Warbler (Myrtle), Chris Wood

Continental Summary

Favorable conditions mid period bring light to moderate movements of American Wigeon, Ring-necked Duck, Pied-billed Grebe, Bald Eagle, Northern Flicker, and Yellow-rumped Warbler to the West, while moderate to very heavy weekend movements of Gadwall, Ruddy Duck, Horned Grebe, Sandhill Crane, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Yellow-rumped Warbler, Eastern Meadowlark, and Fox Sparrow take flight in the East.

Want to know what birds were on the move last week? Check out our analysis.

[animation name=”forecast-16-23-october-2015″]

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in blue will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where blue and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

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Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and Northeast	Gulf Coast and Southeast
Great Plains	West

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Favorable winds and cooler temperatures spreading across the region will bring moderate to very heavy flights to many areas for the weekend. This will include extensive nocturnal flights as well as morning flights, particularly in coastal areas. By Monday, southerly flow and high pressure building from the west slow the flood gates in most areas away from the immediate coast. As this air mass moves east, much of the region will see only light movements on Tuesday. Another disturbance in passage by this time will bring some changes to the intensity and extent of movements, but these will not be uniform: for the remainder of the week much of the region sees multiple transitions from locally favorable to unfavorable conditions, with similar transitions from moderate and heavy flights to minimal movement.

Ruddy Duck, Chris Wood

Species on the Move

[expand title=”Beginning Arrivals %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Red-throated Loon,**,16-Oct,3-Nov,22-Nov,5-Dec,15-Dec
Bufflehead,***,18-Oct,1-Nov,21-Nov,4-Dec,13-Dec
Red-breasted Merganser,***,18-Oct,5-Nov,28-Nov,-,-
White-winged Crossbill,*,18-Oct,31-Oct,17-Nov,2-Dec,12-Dec
Hooded Merganser,***,20-Oct,4-Nov,26-Nov,9-Dec,24-Dec
Cave Swallow,*,21-Oct,2-Nov,17-Nov,3-Dec,13-Dec
Common Redpoll,*,22-Oct,30-Dec,After Dec 31,-,-
Common Goldeneye,***,23-Oct,13-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Beginning Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart
Wilson’s Snipe,*,6-Aug,1-Oct,16-Oct,2-Nov,19-Nov
Field Sparrow,***,21-Sep,2-Oct,16-Oct,3-Nov,15-Nov
Eastern Meadowlark,*,17-Sep,29-Sep,16-Oct,2-Nov,17-Nov
Brown Creeper,**,15-Sep,28-Sep,17-Oct,30-Oct,9-Nov
Winter Wren,**,14-Sep,28-Sep,17-Oct,31-Oct,12-Nov
Golden-crowned Kinglet,***,18-Sep,30-Sep,18-Oct,2-Nov,15-Nov
Common Grackle,***,1-Oct,8-Oct,18-Oct,8-Nov,23-Nov
Eastern Bluebird,***,9-Sep,25-Sep,19-Oct,11-Nov,29-Nov
Hermit Thrush,***,20-Sep,3-Oct,19-Oct,5-Nov,17-Nov
White-throated Sparrow,***,16-Sep,29-Sep,19-Oct,2-Nov,13-Nov
Red-winged Blackbird,***,21-Sep,3-Oct,19-Oct,7-Nov,23-Nov
Northern Harrier,*,1-Aug,26-Sep,20-Oct,10-Nov,27-Nov
Song Sparrow,***,8-Sep,10-Oct,20-Oct,1-Nov,-
Saltmarsh Sparrow,*,15-Sep,10-Oct,20-Oct,5-Nov,15-Nov
Vesper Sparrow,*,24-Sep,6-Oct,21-Oct,7-Nov,18-Nov
American Pipit,*,5-Sep,21-Sep,22-Oct,17-Nov,4-Dec
Rusty Blackbird,**,18-Sep,3-Oct,23-Oct,10-Nov,25-Nov
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Ending Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart[attr style=”color:green”]
Sora,*,12-Aug,28-Aug,21-Sep,16-Oct,30-Oct
Great Blue Heron,***,-,Before July 1,10-Aug,19-Oct,8-Dec
Great Egret,***,Before July 1,11-Jul,12-Aug,19-Oct,6-Nov
American Kestrel,***,27-Aug,10-Sep,28-Sep,19-Oct,5-Nov
Eastern Phoebe,***,4-Sep,16-Sep,30-Sep,20-Oct,3-Nov
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker,***,10-Sep,22-Sep,7-Oct,21-Oct,31-Oct
Blue-headed Vireo,***,6-Sep,19-Sep,4-Oct,21-Oct,2-Nov
Clay-colored Sparrow,*,5-Sep,17-Sep,4-Oct,21-Oct,3-Nov
Blue-winged Teal,**,4-Aug,18-Aug,9-Sep,22-Oct,6-Nov
Peregrine Falcon,***,6-Sep,20-Sep,5-Oct,22-Oct,3-Nov
Palm Warbler,***,4-Sep,18-Sep,5-Oct,22-Oct,4-Nov
Lincoln’s Sparrow,***,7-Sep,19-Sep,5-Oct,22-Oct,2-Nov
[/table]
[/expand]

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Moderate to very heavy flights abound on the weekend, and continue in more easterly reaches of the region through the remainder of the period, particularly in the Carolinas through Florida. However, many areas west of the Mississippi River will experience substantial reductions in flights after the beginning of the work week, including a total migration shutdown in intense precipitation to end the period.

Savannah Sparrow, Ian Davies

Species on the Move

[expand title=”Beginning Arrivals %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Snow Goose,**,16-Oct,2-Nov,7-Dec,-,-
Redhead,***,17-Oct,31-Oct,20-Nov,3-Dec,13-Dec
Cinnamon Teal,*,18-Oct,30-Oct,23-Nov,-,-
Ross’s Goose,*,18-Oct,8-Nov,11-Dec,-,-
Rusty Blackbird,*,20-Oct,9-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Ferruginous Hawk,*,22-Oct,8-Nov,29-Nov,16-Dec,After Dec 31
Canvasback,**,23-Oct,8-Nov,7-Dec,-,-
Common Loon,***,23-Oct,7-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Lesser Scaup,***,23-Oct,7-Nov,4-Dec,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Peaking Arrivals” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Eastern Meadowlark,***,2-Oct,16-Oct,3-Nov,14-Nov,-
Ruby-crowned Kinglet,***,1-Oct,16-Oct,15-Dec,-,-
Swamp Sparrow,**,4-Oct,16-Oct,16-Dec,-,-
Double-crested Cormorant,***,25-Sep,17-Oct,21-Nov,27-Nov,1-Dec
Blue-headed Vireo,*,1-Sep,18-Oct,18-Dec,After Dec 31,-
Spotted Towhee,*,5-Oct,18-Oct,16-Dec,-,-
Winter Wren,*,7-Oct,18-Oct,14-Dec,-,-
Golden-crowned Kinglet,**,7-Oct,19-Oct,14-Dec,-,-
Savannah Sparrow,**,6-Oct,19-Oct,20-Dec,-,-
Western Meadowlark,*,3-Oct,19-Oct,10-Nov,26-Nov,8-Dec
Wilson’s Snipe,*,20-Sep,19-Oct,15-Dec,-,-
Yellow-rumped Warbler,***,6-Oct,19-Oct,20-Dec,After Dec 31,-
American Avocet,*,1-Sep,20-Oct,5-Nov,24-Nov,8-Dec
Franklin’s Gull,*,8-Oct,20-Oct,5-Nov,21-Nov,4-Dec
Orange-crowned Warbler,***,6-Oct,20-Oct,12-Nov,-,-
Song Sparrow,***,8-Oct,20-Oct,16-Dec,After Dec 31,-
Vesper Sparrow,*,8-Oct,20-Oct,18-Dec,-,-
White-crowned Sparrow,**,7-Oct,20-Oct,14-Dec,-,-
White-throated Sparrow,***,8-Oct,20-Oct,15-Dec,-,-
Brown Creeper,*,8-Oct,21-Oct,17-Dec,-,-
Great Blue Heron,**,27-Jul,21-Oct,19-Nov,-,-
Northern Harrier,***,26-Sep,21-Oct,17-Nov,-,-
Sprague’s Pipit,*,11-Oct,21-Oct,7-Nov,-,-
Field Sparrow,**,11-Oct,22-Oct,17-Dec,-,-
Hermit Thrush,***,11-Oct,22-Oct,16-Dec,-,-
American Coot,***,5-Oct,23-Oct,20-Nov,-,-
Chipping Sparrow,***,12-Oct,23-Oct,17-Dec,After Dec 31,-
Dunlin,**,9-Oct,23-Oct,14-Nov,26-Nov,7-Dec
Pied-billed Grebe,***,2-Oct,23-Oct,25-Nov,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Ending Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart[attr style=”color:green”]
American Redstart,***,29-Aug,11-Sep,28-Sep,16-Oct,30-Oct
Cape May Warbler,**,31-Aug,12-Sep,29-Sep,16-Oct,31-Oct
Ovenbird,***,26-Aug,9-Sep,27-Sep,16-Oct,2-Nov
Northern Parula,***,7-Aug,3-Sep,23-Sep,17-Oct,2-Nov
Black-and-white Warbler,***,18-Aug,6-Sep,26-Sep,18-Oct,5-Nov
Black-billed Cuckoo,*,17-Aug,5-Sep,26-Sep,18-Oct,1-Nov
Gray-cheeked Thrush,**,6-Sep,17-Sep,2-Oct,19-Oct,30-Oct
Magnolia Warbler,***,1-Sep,14-Sep,1-Oct,19-Oct,1-Nov
Wood Thrush,***,3-Sep,16-Sep,2-Oct,19-Oct,31-Oct
Yellow-throated Warbler,***,31-Jul,6-Sep,26-Sep,19-Oct,4-Nov
Clay-colored Sparrow,*,2-Sep,15-Sep,4-Oct,21-Oct,4-Nov
Rose-breasted Grosbeak,***,7-Sep,19-Sep,4-Oct,21-Oct,1-Nov
Tennessee Warbler,***,31-Aug,15-Sep,3-Oct,22-Oct,5-Nov
Common Yellowthroat,***,2-Sep,16-Sep,5-Oct,23-Oct,6-Nov
Peregrine Falcon,**,9-Sep,22-Sep,8-Oct,23-Oct,3-Nov
Swainson’s Hawk,*,-,-,28-Sep,23-Oct,19-Nov
[/table]
[/expand]

Great Plains

A quick start to the weekend with moderate to heavy flights will be short lived, as southerly flow returns and quiets the system for Saturday and Sunday. By Monday night, the northern Plains get back in the action with moderate to heavy flights, some of which will continue locally through Tuesday and Wednesday nights. A substantial disturbance arrives to end the period, shutting down migrants and keeping birds in place.

Greater White-fronted Geese, Ian Davies

Species on the Move

[expand title=”Beginning Arrivals %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Bald Eagle,***,16-Oct,5-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Common Redpoll,*,16-Oct,2-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Hooded Merganser,***,17-Oct,30-Oct,20-Nov,2-Dec,11-Dec
Snow Goose,***,18-Oct,1-Nov,20-Nov,4-Dec,15-Dec
Greater Scaup,**,19-Oct,1-Nov,16-Nov,1-Dec,10-Dec
Ross’s Goose,**,19-Oct,2-Nov,23-Nov,7-Dec,19-Dec
Bufflehead,***,20-Oct,3-Nov,19-Nov,3-Dec,13-Dec
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Peaking Arrivals” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Sandhill Crane,***,5-Oct,16-Oct,30-Oct,15-Nov,25-Nov
American Wigeon,***,5-Oct,18-Oct,4-Nov,20-Nov,3-Dec
Greater White-fronted Goose,***,6-Oct,18-Oct,3-Nov,15-Nov,-
Western Grebe,**,2-Sep,18-Oct,31-Oct,19-Nov,3-Dec
Green-winged Teal,***,7-Oct,19-Oct,4-Nov,19-Nov,2-Dec
Northern Shrike,*,8-Oct,19-Oct,17-Dec,-,-
Gadwall,***,8-Oct,20-Oct,7-Nov,20-Nov,1-Dec
Horned Grebe,***,7-Oct,20-Oct,6-Nov,24-Nov,9-Dec
Northern Pintail,***,8-Oct,20-Oct,4-Nov,19-Nov,1-Dec
Ring-necked Duck,***,8-Oct,20-Oct,7-Nov,19-Nov,29-Nov
Ruddy Duck,***,8-Oct,20-Oct,4-Nov,20-Nov,4-Dec
Snow Bunting,**,10-Oct,20-Oct,5-Nov,-,-
Lapland Longspur,*,9-Oct,21-Oct,21-Dec,-,-
Herring Gull,**,30-Sep,22-Oct,28-Nov,After Dec 31,-
Northern Shoveler,***,11-Oct,22-Oct,6-Nov,22-Nov,5-Dec
Redhead,***,10-Oct,22-Oct,7-Nov,24-Nov,8-Dec
Rusty Blackbird,*,6-Oct,22-Oct,13-Nov,-,-
American Tree Sparrow,***,11-Oct,23-Oct,21-Dec,-,-
Ring-billed Gull,***,16-Jul,23-Oct,10-Nov,29-Nov,-
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Beginning Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart
American White Pelican,**,22-Aug,9-Sep,16-Oct,18-Nov,9-Dec
Le Conte’s Sparrow,***,21-Sep,1-Oct,17-Oct,1-Nov,12-Nov
Swamp Sparrow,***,18-Sep,30-Sep,17-Oct,2-Nov,13-Nov
Field Sparrow,***,18-Sep,30-Sep,18-Oct,6-Nov,17-Nov
White-crowned Sparrow,***,16-Sep,30-Sep,18-Oct,3-Nov,15-Nov
White-throated Sparrow,***,13-Sep,28-Sep,18-Oct,3-Nov,16-Nov
Wilson’s Snipe,**,7-Aug,3-Oct,18-Oct,4-Nov,16-Nov
American Avocet,***,-,-,19-Oct,11-Nov,25-Nov
Eastern Meadowlark,***,17-Sep,1-Oct,19-Oct,5-Nov,17-Nov
Double-crested Cormorant,***,8-Sep,25-Sep,22-Oct,24-Nov,17-Dec
[/table]
[/expand]

West

Precipitation and marginal conditions for flight will be spread across the region for the weekend, keeping movements light and local. By Monday, portions of California north and east through the Great Basin and northern Rockies will begin to experience more favorable conditions and light to moderate flights. The favorable conditions reach their greatest extents on Tuesday night, and much of the region away from the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies experiences light to moderate flights. As the period draws to a close, favorable conditions persist but become increasingly scattered; migration intensities will be light to locally moderate, but mirror the scattered patterns of good flight conditions in place and time.

Horned Grebe, Ian Davies

Species on the Move

[expand title=”Beginning Arrivals %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Rusty Blackbird,*,16-Oct,30-Oct,18-Nov,2-Dec,12-Dec
Red-breasted Merganser,***,17-Oct,1-Nov,21-Nov,-,-
Pacific Loon,*,18-Oct,1-Nov,17-Nov,-,-
Hooded Merganser,***,18-Oct,2-Nov,26-Nov,6-Dec,14-Dec
Short-eared Owl,*,20-Oct,5-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Tundra Swan,**,21-Oct,3-Nov,22-Nov,-,-
Bohemian Waxwing,*,22-Oct,22-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Barrow’s Goldeneye,**,23-Oct,7-Nov,2-Dec,-,-
Brant,*,23-Oct,6-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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