Regional Migration Forecast: 13-20 March 2015
Continental Summary
Weekend birders can look forward to widespread light to moderate movements across the West, while Monday through Wednesday brings similarly widespread light to moderate flights in the East. Species on the move this week will include Blue-winged Teal, Turkey Vulture, Eastern Phoebe, Western Kingbird, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher, Tree Swallow, Lucy’s Warbler, and Hooded Warbler.
[animation name=”13-20-march-2015-forecast”]
Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in red will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where red and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.
Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.
Quick Links to Regions
Upper Midwest and Northeast![]() |
Gulf Coast and Southeast![]() |
Great Plains![]() |
West![]() |
Upper Midwest and Northeast
Arriving low pressure in the region brings short-lived favorable conditions for light to moderate movements to kick off the weekend before widespread precipitation shuts down migrants. Birders should watch this precipitation carefully, as it could concentrate birds, particularly waterbirds. Sunday and Monday nights see a return of more widespread favorable conditions, with southerly winds on Monday night spawning nearly region wide and moderate flights. Late week conditions, while also favorable in some areas, will not yield such extensive flights, with more local light to moderate flights and some locations shut down completely in rain.
Species on the Move
[expand title=”Beginning to Arrive %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
| Species | Begin Arrival | Rapid Influx | Peak | Rapid Depart |
| Eastern Phoebe | 2-Mar | 29-Mar | 12-Apr | – |
| Wilson’s Snipe | 8-Mar | 25-Mar | 15-Apr | 30-Apr |
| Great Blue Heron | 11-Mar | 21-Mar | 14-May | – |
| Osprey | 13-Mar | 29-Mar | 19-Apr | – |
| Blue-winged Teal | 14-Mar | 31-Mar | 18-Apr | 2-May |
| Northern Gannet | 14-Mar | 24-Mar | 5-Apr | 19-Apr |
| American Kestrel | 15-Mar | 28-Mar | 11-Apr | 29-Apr |
| Pectoral Sandpiper | 16-Mar | 29-Mar | 17-Apr | 24-May |
| Brown-headed Cowbird | 16-Mar | 8-Apr | 2-May | – |
| Common Loon | 17-Mar | 26-Mar | 11-Apr | 26-Apr |
| Double-crested Cormorant | 18-Mar | 1-Apr | 19-Apr | – |
| Bonaparte’s Gull | 18-Mar | 30-Mar | 11-Apr | 24-Apr |
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[expand title=”Arriving” tag=”h3″]
No species arriving rapidly yet — check back next week!
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[expand title=”Peaking” tag=”h3″]
| Species | Peak | Rapid Depart |
| Snow Goose | 6-Mar | 29-Mar |
| Bald Eagle | 9-Mar | – |
| Canvasback | 11-Mar | 30-Mar |
| Northern Pintail | 12-Mar | 31-Mar |
| Common Merganser | 12-Mar | 11-Apr |
| Red-necked Grebe | 12-Mar | 23-Mar |
| Tundra Swan | 13-Mar | 29-Mar |
| Redhead | 13-Mar | 30-Mar |
| American Woodcock | 17-Mar | 16-Apr |
| American Wigeon | 19-Mar | 11-Apr |
| Red-breasted Merganser | 19-Mar | 21-Apr |
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[expand title=”Departing” tag=”h3″]
| Species | Rapid Depart |
| White-winged Scoter | Before 1-Mar |
| Rough-legged Hawk | Before 1-Mar |
| Great Black-backed Gull | Before 1-Mar |
| Snow Bunting | Before 1-Mar |
| Horned Lark | 19-Mar |
[/expand]
Gulf Coast and Southeast
Local light to moderate movements highlight the weekend in Florida and a few other locations, while the bulk of region waits patiently. On Monday, and then again late in the week, light to moderate movements will occur, but these will not be region wide. Wednesday-Thursday have the most favorable conditions for diurnal and nocturnal migrants to move through Texas, but note that no favorable conditions for trans-Gulf migration are apparent for any part of the week.
Species on the Move
[expand title=”Beginning to Arrive %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
| Species | Begin Arrival | Rapid Influx | Peak | Rapid Depart |
| Black-and-white Warbler | 10-Mar | 17-Apr | 26-Apr | 9-May |
| Lesser Yellowlegs | 11-Mar | 15-Apr | 24-Apr | 10-May |
| Baird’s Sandpiper | 12-Mar | 30-Mar | 3-May | 19-May |
| Yellow-throated Vireo | 12-Mar | 28-Mar | 22-Apr | – |
| Louisiana Waterthrush | 12-Mar | 20-Mar | 3-Apr | – |
| Gull-billed Tern | 14-Mar | 7-Apr | 20-Apr | 1-May |
| Sandwich Tern | 14-Mar | 9-Apr | 19-Apr | 1-May |
| Ash-throated Flycatcher | 14-Mar | 13-Apr | 23-May | – |
| Lark Sparrow | 14-Mar | 12-Apr | 2-May | – |
| Scissor-tailed Flycatcher | 15-Mar | 26-Mar | 10-May | – |
| Cliff Swallow | 15-Mar | 1-Apr | 10-May | – |
| Marsh Wren | 15-Mar | 10-Apr | 18-Apr | 2-May |
| Swainson’s Hawk | 16-Mar | 27-Mar | 17-Apr | 2-May |
| Ruby-throated Hummingbird | 16-Mar | 4-Apr | 28-Apr | 14-May |
| House Wren | 16-Mar | 30-Mar | 12-Apr | 1-May |
| Blue-gray Gnatcatcher | 16-Mar | 26-Mar | 8-Apr | 18-Apr |
| Hooded Warbler | 16-Mar | 29-Mar | 20-Apr | 2-May |
| American Avocet | 17-Mar | 10-Apr | 20-Apr | 2-May |
| Common Tern | 17-Mar | 11-Apr | 20-Apr | |
| Upland Sandpiper | 19-Mar | 30-Mar | 13-Apr | 28-Apr |
| Short-billed Dowitcher | 19-Mar | 7-Apr | 20-Apr | 7-May |
| Broad-winged Hawk | 20-Mar | 31-Mar | 13-Apr | 23-Apr |
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[expand title=”Arriving” tag=”h3″]
| Species | Begin Arrival | Rapid Influx | Peak | Rapid Depart |
| Golden-cheeked Warbler | Before 1-Mar | 13-Mar | 26-Mar | – |
| Blue-winged Teal | Before 1-Mar | 16-Mar | 5-Apr | 6-May |
| Couch’s Kingbird | Before 1-Mar | 16-Mar | – | – |
| Black-bellied Whistling-Duck | Before 1-Mar | 18-Mar | 24-Apr | – |
| Black-chinned Hummingbird | Before 1-Mar | 18-Mar | 3-May | – |
| American Golden-Plover | 7-Mar | 18-Mar | 30-Mar | 2-May |
| Brown-headed Cowbird | 2-Mar | 19-Mar | 29-Apr | – |
| Black-necked Stilt | 8-Mar | 19-Mar | 21-Apr | 4-May |
| Pectoral Sandpiper | 9-Mar | 19-Mar | 29-Apr | 16-May |
| Louisiana Waterthrush | 12-Mar | 20-Mar | 3-Apr | – |
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[expand title=”Peaking” tag=”h3″]
| Species | Peak | Rapid Depart |
| Northern Flicker | 9-Mar | 4-Apr |
| Common Gallinule | 10-Mar | 3-May |
| Cooper’s Hawk | 12-Mar | 18-Apr |
| Osprey | 16-Mar | 25-Apr |
| Long-billed Curlew | 16-Mar | 29-Apr |
| Swamp Sparrow | 19-Mar | 26-Apr |
| Forster’s Tern | 20-Mar | 3-May |
| Vesper Sparrow | 20-Mar | 5-Apr |
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[expand title=”Departing” tag=”h3″]
| Species | Rapid Depart |
| Snow Goose | Before 1-Mar |
| Northern Pintail | Before 1-Mar |
| Canvasback | Before 1-Mar |
| Redhead | Before 1-Mar |
| Ruddy Duck | Before 1-Mar |
| American Robin | Before 1-Mar |
| American Pipit | Before 1-Mar |
| Harris’s Sparrow | Before 1-Mar |
| Rusty Blackbird | Before 1-Mar |
| Hooded Merganser | 3-Mar |
| Killdeer | 3-Mar |
| Fox Sparrow | 3-Mar |
| Purple Finch | 3-Mar |
| Western Meadowlark | 7-Mar |
| Sandhill Crane | 14-Mar |
| Red-tailed Hawk | 15-Mar |
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Great Plains
An unfavorable cold and northerly wind will keep migrants grounded to start the period, but as high pressure passes east on come the southerly winds for the Saturday and Sunday nights. Light to moderate movements will be widespread as these conditions arrive. The remainder of the period will see alternating favorable, marginal, and unfavorable conditions across the region, and resulting movements will be much more localized and generally lighter in these variable conditions. Birders should, however, watch for precipitation in the mid to late week time frame, particularly in the southern Plains where local concentrations may result from migrants flying into rain. This may be especially true for early migrant shorebirds and waterbirds.
Species on the Move
[expand title=”Beginning to Arrive %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
| Species | Begin Arrival | Rapid Influx | Peak | Rapid Depart |
| American Golden-Plover | 4-Mar | 20-Mar | 8-Apr | – |
| Northern Shoveler | 7-Mar | 19-Mar | 17-Apr | – |
| Wood Duck | 8-Mar | 25-Mar | 7-May | – |
| Gadwall | 10-Mar | 17-Mar | 26-Mar | – |
| Blue-winged Teal | 11-Mar | 23-Mar | 21-Apr | 10-May |
| Greater Yellowlegs | 11-Mar | 20-Mar | 18-Apr | 3-May |
| Baird’s Sandpiper | 12-Mar | 22-Mar | 23-Apr | 24-May |
| Snowy Plover | 13-Mar | 19-Mar | 26-Apr | – |
| Pectoral Sandpiper | 13-Mar | 25-Mar | 12-May | 28-May |
| Song Sparrow | 13-Mar | 20-Mar | 30-Mar | – |
| Double-crested Cormorant | 14-Mar | 27-Mar | 15-Apr | – |
| American White Pelican | 14-Mar | 21-Mar | 17-Apr | – |
| Common Loon | 15-Mar | 23-Mar | 5-Apr | 10-May |
| Turkey Vulture | 15-Mar | 27-Mar | 16-Apr | – |
| Brown-headed Cowbird | 17-Mar | 22-Apr | 11-May | – |
| Pied-billed Grebe | 18-Mar | 3-Apr | 17-Apr | 2-May |
| Eared Grebe | 18-Mar | 15-Apr | 27-Apr | – |
| Yellow-throated Warbler | 18-Mar | 1-Apr | 24-Apr | – |
| Vesper Sparrow | 18-Mar | 2-Apr | 20-Apr | 4-May |
| Savannah Sparrow | 18-Mar | 15-Apr | 25-Apr | 8-May |
| White-eyed Vireo | 19-Mar | 3-Apr | 22-May | – |
| Purple Martin | 19-Mar | 7-Apr | 8-May | – |
| Tree Swallow | 19-Mar | 11-Apr | 5-May | – |
[/expand]
[expand title=”Arriving” tag=”h3″]
| Species | Begin Arrival | Rapid Influx | Peak | Rapid Depart |
| Green-winged Teal | Before 1-Mar | 3-Mar | 28-Mar | 25-Apr |
| Ring-necked Duck | Before 1-Mar | 5-Mar | 19-Mar | 4-Apr |
| Bufflehead | Before 1-Mar | 8-Mar | 23-Mar | 6-Apr |
| Lesser Scaup | Before 1-Mar | 16-Mar | 29-Mar | 27-Apr |
| Ruddy Duck | Before 1-Mar | 18-Mar | 5-Apr | – |
| Northern Shoveler | 7-Mar | 19-Mar | 17-Apr | – |
| American Golden-Plover | 4-Mar | 20-Mar | 8-Apr | – |
| Greater Yellowlegs | 11-Mar | 20-Mar | 18-Apr | 3-May |
| Song Sparrow | 13-Mar | 20-Mar | 30-Mar | – |
[/expand]
[expand title=”Peaking” tag=”h3″]
| Species | Peak | Rapid Depart |
| Snow Goose | 7-Mar | 23-Mar |
| Greater White-fronted Goose | 8-Mar | 21-Mar |
| Rough-legged Hawk | 10-Mar | 23-Mar |
| American Woodcock | 12-Mar | 22-Mar |
| Northern Pintail | 14-Mar | – |
| Redhead | 14-Mar | – |
| Sandhill Crane | 17-Mar | 31-Mar |
| Northern Harrier | 18-Mar | 25-Apr |
| Ring-billed Gull | 18-Mar | 2-Apr |
| Greater Scaup | 19-Mar | 13-Apr |
| Ring-necked Duck | 19-Mar | 4-Apr |
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[expand title=”Departing” tag=”h3″]
| Species | Rapid Depart |
| Rusty Blackbird | 12-Mar |
| Common Goldeneye | 17-Mar |
| Ross’s Goose | 19-Mar |
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West
Favorable conditions will facilitate light to moderate movements across the region to begin the forecast period this weekend. Those in the Pacific Northwest should pay particular attention to the distribution of precipitation, which may interact with migrants on the move on Saturday and Sunday nights. More marginal and locally favorable conditions are the norm for the remainder of the period during the work week, with similar local and scattered movements that will be primarily light. More isolated moderate movements are possible late in the period in portions of the Desert Southwest.
Species on the Move
[expand title=”Beginning to Arrive %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
| Species | Begin Arrival | Rapid Influx | Peak | Rapid Depart |
| Lucy’s Warbler | 10-Mar | 19-Mar | 1-Apr | – |
| Bell’s Vireo | 11-Mar | 21-Mar | 28-Apr | – |
| White-winged Dove | 12-Mar | 20-Apr | 4-May | – |
| Hooded Oriole | 13-Mar | 23-Mar | 30-Apr | – |
| Scott’s Oriole | 14-Mar | 22-Mar | 28-Apr | – |
| Black-chinned Hummingbird | 15-Mar | 4-Apr | 16-May | – |
| Pacific-slope Flycatcher | 15-Mar | 22-Apr | 3-Jun | – |
| Western Kingbird | 17-Mar | 27-Apr | 17-May | – |
| Cliff Swallow | 17-Mar | 15-Apr | 21-Jun | – |
| Whimbrel | 18-Mar | 19-Apr | 28-Apr | 10-May |
[/expand]
[expand title=”Arriving” tag=”h3″]
| Species | Begin Arrival | Rapid Influx | Peak | Rapid Depart |
| Broad-billed Hummingbird | 2-Mar | 16-Mar | 28-Mar | – |
| Painted Redstart | 6-Mar | 17-Mar | 26-Apr | – |
| Lucy’s Warbler | 10-Mar | 19-Mar | 1-Apr | – |
| Rufous Hummingbird | 2-Mar | 20-Mar | 10-Apr | – |
| Lincoln’s Sparrow | 2-Mar | 20-Mar | 3-Apr | 23-Apr |
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[expand title=”Peaking” tag=”h3″]
| Species | Peak | Rapid Depart |
| Northern Flicker | 13-Mar | 27-Mar |
| Lesser Scaup | 14-Mar | 28-Apr |
[/expand]
[expand title=”Departing” tag=”h3″]
| Species | Rapid Depart |
| Northern Pintail | 14-Mar |
| Red-shouldered Hawk | 15-Mar |
| Bald Eagle | 18-Mar |
| Ring-billed Gull | 20-Mar |
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Farnsworth and Van Doren
Photographs courtesy of Ian Davies.
Scientific Team
BirdCast is made possible by the participating scientists at the below institutions, and many other contributors.










