Forecast Maps
Bird migration forecasts show predicted nocturnal migration approximately three hours after local sunset and are updated every 6 hours. Note, the models predicts the migration intensity for birds in active flight; these are not predictions of the numbers of birds on the ground.
How Are These Forecasts Made?
The model underlying the migration forecasts was trained on historical NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data and 23 years of bird movements in the atmosphere as detected by the US weather surveillance radar network. By learning associations between weather variables and migration, we can use the model to predict a bird migration intensity given a particular weather forecast. Forecasts are generated from this model and data from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model.
Understanding Migration Forecasts
Warmer colors on the maps correspond to more intense bird migration. These maps also show area where precipitation is expected to occur, outlined and in grayscale. Sometimes, areas expected to experience precipitation are also expected to experience bird migration simultaneously. Regions where strong bird migration and precipitation are predicted to co-occur are of special interest. First, they can lead to higher collision risks for birds as the combination of precipitation and artificial light at night can be especially disorienting. Second, rain fronts can force birds to the ground, causing potentially high numbers of birds to accumulate on the ground.
Who Produces These Forecasts?
Purdue University, University of Illinois, and Cornell Lab of Ornithology currently produce these forecasts. National Science Foundation, Leon Levy Foundation, Lyda Hill Philanthropies, Edward W. Rose Postdoctoral Fellowship, Amon G. Carter Foundation, and the Marshall Aid Commemoration Commission supported this research, with additional support from University of Massachusetts Amherst and University of Oklahoma.
How To Cite Forecast Map Graphics
To cite forecast migration map graphics, please use the following syntax:
Citation for forecast models: Van Doren, B. M. and K. G. Horton. 2018. A continental system for forecasting bird migration. Science 361:1115-1118. doi: 10.1126/science.aat7526.
Citation for imagery: Van Doren, B. M. and Horton, K. G. Year/s of migration forecast map image. BirdCast, migration forecast map; date and time (from forecast image lower right corner). University of Illinois, Purdue University, and Cornell Lab of Ornithology. birdcast.org. Date/s of access or download.
Scientific Team
BirdCast is made possible by the participating scientists at the below institutions, and many other contributors.
