Regional Migration Forecast: 23-30 October 2015

Snow Bunting, Ryan Schain

Continental Summary

A favorable beginning and end of the period for the West sees light to moderate flights of Gadwall, Bufflehead, Long-tailed Duck, Northern Harrier, Bonaparte’s Gull, Hermit Thrush, Chestnut-collared Longspur, and American Tree Sparrow, while a late weekend and late week pulse of moderate to heavy flights in the East feature Hooded Merganser, Common Loon, American Coot, Ring-billed Gull, Snow Bunting, American Tree Sparrow, and Chipping Sparrow.

Interested to know what birds were on the move this week? Visit our analysis post.

[animation name=”forecast-23-30-october-2015″]

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in blue will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where blue and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

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Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and Northeast	Gulf Coast and Southeast
Great Plains	West

Upper Midwest and Northeast

A tease of moderate to locally heavy flights grace the eastern reaches of the region to begin the weekend, followed by more extensive but similarly intense flights on Saturday in the Upper Midwest and Sunday farther to the east. These flights continue into Tuesday but become increasingly localized to eastern and coastal areas as the next major disturbance spins toward the Midwest. With this system’s passage on Thursday, moderate to very heavy flights will occur on Thursday night in the Midwest and then farther east on Friday night. Note, this strong low pressure system will be one of the first storms with potential to deposit Ash-throated Flycatcher, Cave Swallow, and other western vagrants in the Northeast.

Purple Sandpiper, Ian Davies

Species on the Move

[expand title=”Beginning Arrivals %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Common Goldeneye,***,23-Oct,13-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Ross’s Goose,*,24-Oct,10-Nov,1-Dec,After Dec 31,-
Harlequin Duck,*,24-Oct,6-Nov,24-Nov,-,-
Tundra Swan,***,25-Oct,6-Nov,22-Nov,5-Dec,13-Dec
King Eider,*,27-Oct,12-Nov,14-Dec,After Dec 31,-
Rufous Hummingbird,*,27-Oct,8-Nov,22-Nov,6-Dec,16-Dec
Purple Sandpiper,*,29-Oct,13-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Ash-throated Flycatcher,*,30-Oct,10-Nov,25-Nov,11-Dec,-
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Beginning Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart
Rusty Blackbird,**,18-Sep,3-Oct,23-Oct,10-Nov,25-Nov
Purple Finch,***,21-Sep,6-Oct,24-Oct,11-Nov,25-Nov
American Woodcock,*,27-Sep,12-Oct,26-Oct,13-Nov,25-Nov
Green-winged Teal,**,8-Aug,22-Aug,27-Oct,22-Nov,10-Dec
Pine Siskin,**,24-Sep,9-Oct,29-Oct,14-Nov,27-Nov
Northern Goshawk,*,3-Oct,16-Oct,30-Oct,16-Nov,28-Nov
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Ending Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart[attr style=”color:green”]
Sedge Wren,**,1-Sep,20-Sep,5-Oct,24-Oct,1-Nov
Orange-crowned Warbler,**,14-Sep,25-Sep,10-Oct,25-Oct,5-Nov
Eastern Towhee,***,12-Sep,23-Sep,6-Oct,25-Oct,7-Nov
Nelson’s Sparrow,*,14-Sep,25-Sep,10-Oct,25-Oct,4-Nov
Merlin,**,19-Aug,4-Sep,28-Sep,26-Oct,16-Nov
Killdeer,***,-,Before July 1,2-Aug,28-Oct,26-Nov
Yellow-rumped Warbler,***,16-Sep,27-Sep,13-Oct,28-Oct,9-Nov
Harris’s Sparrow,*,8-Sep,22-Sep,12-Oct,28-Oct,10-Nov
Savannah Sparrow,***,10-Sep,24-Sep,12-Oct,29-Oct,12-Nov
Brown Creeper,**,15-Sep,28-Sep,17-Oct,30-Oct,9-Nov
Ruby-crowned Kinglet,***,16-Sep,28-Sep,14-Oct,30-Oct,11-Nov
Chipping Sparrow,***,18-Sep,27-Sep,9-Oct,30-Oct,13-Nov
Swamp Sparrow,***,16-Sep,28-Sep,14-Oct,30-Oct,12-Nov
White-crowned Sparrow,***,19-Sep,30-Sep,15-Oct,30-Oct,10-Nov
[/table]
[/expand]

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Scattered moderate flights kick off the weekend as increasingly unfavorable conditions spread across the region. This includes substantial precipitation in Texas, completely shutting down movements there. Sunday night sees a local pulse of moderate to heavy flights in Texas, following the slow departure of the rain. However, not until Wednesday and Thursday nights does the region see more extensive moderate to very heavy flights with the complete departure of low pressure to the east.

Common Grackle, Ryan Schain

[expand title=”Beginning Arrivals %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Canvasback,**,23-Oct,8-Nov,7-Dec,-,-
Common Loon,***,23-Oct,7-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Lesser Scaup,***,23-Oct,7-Nov,4-Dec,-,-
Cedar Waxwing,***,24-Oct,3-Dec,After Dec 31,-,-
Ring-billed Gull,***,25-Oct,15-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Horned Grebe,**,27-Oct,11-Nov,7-Dec,-,-
Greater Scaup,*,28-Oct,13-Nov,18-Dec,-,-
Whooping Crane,*,28-Oct,30-Dec,After Dec 31,-,-
Hooded Merganser,***,29-Oct,13-Nov,11-Dec,-,-
Northern Gannet,*,29-Oct,30-Dec,After Dec 31,-,-
Bonaparte’s Gull,**,30-Oct,14-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Tundra Swan,*,30-Oct,30-Dec,After Dec 31,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Peaking Arrivals” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
American Coot,***,5-Oct,23-Oct,20-Nov,-,-
Chipping Sparrow,***,12-Oct,23-Oct,17-Dec,After Dec 31,-
Dunlin,**,9-Oct,23-Oct,14-Nov,26-Nov,7-Dec
Pied-billed Grebe,***,2-Oct,23-Oct,25-Nov,-,-
American White Pelican,**,5-Oct,24-Oct,19-Nov,-,-
Purple Finch,*,13-Oct,25-Oct,After Dec 31,-,-
American Wigeon,**,9-Oct,26-Oct,21-Nov,-,-
Common Gallinule,**,11-Oct,26-Oct,18-Nov,-,-
Green-winged Teal,***,12-Oct,26-Oct,21-Nov,-,-
Gadwall,***,13-Oct,27-Oct,10-Dec,-,-
Northern Pintail,**,13-Oct,27-Oct,19-Nov,-,-
Pine Siskin,*,13-Oct,27-Oct,After Dec 31,-,-
Sandhill Crane,**,8-Oct,27-Oct,15-Dec,After Dec 31,-
American Pipit,**,14-Oct,29-Oct,11-Dec,-,-
Dark-eyed Junco,***,15-Oct,29-Oct,14-Dec,-,-
Eared Grebe,*,11-Oct,29-Oct,After Dec 31,-,-
Northern Shoveler,***,15-Oct,29-Oct,24-Nov,-,-
Ruddy Duck,***,14-Oct,29-Oct,25-Nov,15-Dec,-
Cinnamon Teal,*,18-Oct,30-Oct,23-Nov,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Beginning Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart
Cooper’s Hawk,**,29-Jul,11-Sep,24-Oct,11-Nov,22-Nov
Brown-headed Cowbird,**,12-Sep,26-Sep,25-Oct,11-Nov,22-Nov
Common Grackle,***,26-Sep,11-Oct,25-Oct,10-Nov,20-Nov
Caspian Tern,*,26-Jul,13-Aug,26-Oct,23-Nov,-
House Wren,***,21-Sep,8-Oct,27-Oct,11-Nov,-
Sharp-shinned Hawk,**,2-Sep,17-Sep,28-Oct,12-Nov,22-Nov
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Ending Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart[attr style=”color:green”]
Common Yellowthroat,***,2-Sep,16-Sep,5-Oct,23-Oct,6-Nov
Peregrine Falcon,**,9-Sep,22-Sep,8-Oct,23-Oct,3-Nov
Swainson’s Hawk,*,-,-,28-Sep,23-Oct,19-Nov
Brown Thrasher,***,3-Sep,18-Sep,5-Oct,24-Oct,7-Nov
Bay-breasted Warbler,**,7-Sep,21-Sep,7-Oct,25-Oct,6-Nov
Black-throated Blue Warbler,***,5-Sep,20-Sep,6-Oct,25-Oct,7-Nov
Blackpoll Warbler,*,13-Sep,25-Sep,10-Oct,26-Oct,6-Nov
Gray Catbird,***,12-Sep,24-Sep,10-Oct,26-Oct,7-Nov
Indigo Bunting,***,15-Sep,25-Sep,9-Oct,26-Oct,8-Nov
Nashville Warbler,***,30-Aug,13-Sep,4-Oct,26-Oct,15-Nov
Black-throated Green Warbler,***,7-Sep,22-Sep,8-Oct,27-Oct,9-Nov
Painted Bunting,**,26-Sep,3-Oct,13-Oct,29-Oct,8-Nov
[/table]
[/expand]

Great Plains

A pulse of extensive moderate to heavy flights that kicks off the weekend will become increasingly localized by Sunday night, as favorable conditions on Friday night give way to largely unfavorable conditions on Sunday night. Tuesday and Wednesday nights see another pulse of moderate to heavy, and locally very heavy, flights following the passage of substantial frontal boundary. Following this pulse of birds, the remainder of the week will be relatively quiet as unfavorable southerly flow returns.

Smith’s Longspur, Ryan Schain

Species on the Move

[expand title=”Peaking Arrivals” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
American Tree Sparrow,***,11-Oct,23-Oct,21-Dec,-,-
Ring-billed Gull,***,16-Jul,23-Oct,10-Nov,29-Nov,-
Common Loon,***,12-Oct,24-Oct,10-Nov,26-Nov,10-Dec
Whooping Crane,*,13-Oct,24-Oct,8-Nov,24-Nov,6-Dec
Canvasback,***,13-Oct,25-Oct,11-Nov,27-Nov,8-Dec
Lesser Scaup,***,14-Oct,26-Oct,13-Nov,28-Nov,11-Dec
Mallard,***,11-Oct,26-Oct,17-Nov,3-Dec,-
Bonaparte’s Gull,***,12-Oct,27-Oct,14-Nov,1-Dec,14-Dec
Smith’s Longspur,*,4-Oct,27-Oct,6-Dec,-,-
Rough-legged Hawk,**,8-Oct,28-Oct,After Dec 31,-,-
Hooded Merganser,***,17-Oct,30-Oct,20-Nov,2-Dec,11-Dec
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Beginning Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart
American Pipit,***,17-Sep,4-Oct,24-Oct,12-Nov,26-Nov
Red-winged Blackbird,***,9-Sep,22-Sep,24-Oct,13-Nov,27-Nov
Song Sparrow,***,21-Sep,6-Oct,25-Oct,9-Nov,19-Nov
Greater Yellowlegs,**,-,1-Aug,26-Oct,13-Nov,25-Nov
Surf Scoter,*,26-Sep,10-Oct,28-Oct,15-Nov,30-Nov
American Coot,***,11-Sep,3-Oct,29-Oct,21-Nov,10-Dec
Northern Harrier,***,24-Sep,11-Oct,29-Oct,12-Nov,21-Nov
Red-tailed Hawk,**,8-Sep,28-Sep,29-Oct,14-Nov,25-Nov
Fox Sparrow,***,2-Oct,14-Oct,30-Oct,12-Nov,24-Nov
Sandhill Crane,***,5-Oct,16-Oct,30-Oct,15-Nov,25-Nov
Tundra Swan,**,28-Sep,15-Oct,30-Oct,18-Nov,30-Nov
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Ending Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart[attr style=”color:green”]
American Golden-Plover,*,6-Aug,3-Sep,27-Sep,23-Oct,19-Nov
Blue-winged Teal,***,2-Aug,18-Aug,18-Sep,25-Oct,13-Nov
Nelson’s Sparrow,**,17-Sep,27-Sep,10-Oct,25-Oct,4-Nov
Marsh Wren,**,9-Sep,22-Sep,9-Oct,26-Oct,9-Nov
Northern Flicker,***,30-Aug,13-Sep,7-Oct,26-Oct,5-Nov
Sedge Wren,***,16-Sep,26-Sep,10-Oct,26-Oct,6-Nov
Vesper Sparrow,***,9-Sep,23-Sep,8-Oct,26-Oct,8-Nov
Ruby-crowned Kinglet,***,6-Sep,21-Sep,10-Oct,27-Oct,10-Nov
Wood Duck,***,Before July 1,1-Jul,19-Aug,27-Oct,19-Nov
Lincoln’s Sparrow,***,8-Sep,23-Sep,10-Oct,28-Oct,10-Nov
Spotted Towhee,***,10-Sep,22-Sep,8-Oct,28-Oct,10-Nov
Sprague’s Pipit,*,15-Sep,27-Sep,11-Oct,28-Oct,8-Nov
Yellow-rumped Warbler,***,12-Sep,25-Sep,13-Oct,29-Oct,10-Nov
Savannah Sparrow,***,14-Sep,27-Sep,13-Oct,30-Oct,12-Nov
[/table]
[/expand]

West

The Rockies and the Desert Southwest experience light to moderate movements to kick off the weekend. But flights become increasingly scattered and local for the days that follow until low pressure moves across the Rockies on Tuesday. Following the passage of this low pressure center, eastern portions of the region will see moderate flights, particularly along the eastern front of the Rockies. By week’s end, more extensive favorable conditions build across southern and eastern reaches of the West, spawning more extensive light to moderate flights from California east and north through the northern Rockies.

Barrow’s Goldeneye, Chris Wood

Species on the Move

[expand title=”Beginning Arrivals %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Barrow’s Goldeneye,**,23-Oct,7-Nov,2-Dec,-,-
Brant,*,23-Oct,6-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Ross’s Goose,**,24-Oct,7-Nov,26-Nov,7-Dec,14-Dec
Trumpeter Swan,*,24-Oct,6-Nov,25-Nov,-,-
Common Redpoll,*,28-Oct,11-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Common Goldeneye,***,30-Oct,11-Nov,2-Dec,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Peaking Arrivals” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Snow Bunting,*,13-Oct,24-Oct,10-Nov,-,-
American Tree Sparrow,*,11-Oct,24-Oct,15-Nov,26-Nov,7-Dec
Bonaparte’s Gull,***,13-Oct,24-Oct,10-Nov,26-Nov,9-Dec
Eurasian Wigeon,*,28-Sep,24-Oct,After Dec 31,-,-
Rock Sandpiper,*,10-Oct,24-Oct,14-Nov,-,-
Gadwall,***,6-Oct,25-Oct,18-Nov,-,-
Lesser Scaup,***,9-Oct,25-Oct,20-Nov,-,-
Canvasback,**,11-Oct,28-Oct,23-Nov,4-Dec,11-Dec
Long-tailed Duck,*,14-Oct,28-Oct,18-Nov,1-Dec,10-Dec
Bufflehead,***,15-Oct,29-Oct,22-Nov,3-Dec,10-Dec
Northern Harrier,**,12-Aug,29-Oct,20-Nov,-,-
Rough-legged Hawk,*,7-Oct,30-Oct,After Dec 31,-,-
Rusty Blackbird,*,16-Oct,30-Oct,18-Nov,2-Dec,12-Dec
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Ending Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart[attr style=”color:green”]
Red-naped Sapsucker,*,8-Sep,22-Sep,9-Oct,24-Oct,4-Nov
Sharp-tailed Sandpiper,*,12-Sep,24-Sep,8-Oct,24-Oct,4-Nov
Magnolia Warbler,*,15-Sep,26-Sep,10-Oct,26-Oct,6-Nov
White-crowned Sparrow,***,4-Sep,20-Sep,14-Oct,26-Oct,6-Nov
Townsend’s Warbler,**,12-Aug,30-Aug,30-Sep,27-Oct,10-Nov
Red-breasted Nuthatch,**,29-Jul,10-Aug,2-Sep,28-Oct,14-Nov
Yellow-rumped Warbler,***,2-Sep,26-Sep,17-Oct,29-Oct,8-Nov
Golden-crowned Sparrow,**,12-Sep,27-Sep,21-Oct,30-Oct,7-Nov
[/table]
[/expand]

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

Scientific Team

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