Regional Migration Forecast: 13-20 November 2015

Golden Eagle, Brian Sullivan

Continental Summary

Mid to late period conditions will be favorable for scattered light to moderate pulses of movements featuring American Wigeon, Cooper’s Hawk, Golden Eagle, American Coot, Snowy Owl, and Red-winged Blackbird in the West, while a strong frontal passage early in the weekend brings moderate to heavy flights of Mallard, Snow Goose, Hooded Merganser, Common Merganser, Purple Sandpiper, Bonaparte’s Gull, and American Robin to the East.

[animation name=”forecast-13-20-november-2015″]

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in blue will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where blue and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

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Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and Northeast	Gulf Coast and Southeast
Great Plains	West

Upper Midwest and Northeast

The passage of a strong low pressure center to the east brings favorable conditions to much of the region for moderate to heavy weekend flights. These conditions, and the intensity of these flights, persists in more coastal and northeastern locales through Monday. However, Tuesday sees a return of southerly flow, and for an extended period, shutting down flights in most areas through the forecast week. Note that a few areas are forecast to experience light winds, and locally light and moderate flights may occur in these locations. In addition, another strong system approaches the region to end the period, bringing moderate flights, some of which may be locally heavy, to the upper midwest on Friday.

American Robin, Ryan Schain

Species on the Move

[expand title=”Beginning Arrivals %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Barrow’s Goldeneye,*,20-Nov,5-Dec,After Dec 31,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Peaking Arrivals” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Common Goldeneye,**,23-Oct,13-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Purple Sandpiper,*,29-Oct,13-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Beginning Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart
Gadwall,*,3-Oct,19-Oct,13-Nov,30-Nov,-
Common Loon,***,9-Oct,25-Oct,14-Nov,30-Nov,12-Dec
Horned Grebe,**,10-Oct,25-Oct,14-Nov,1-Dec,15-Dec
Lesser Scaup,*,9-Oct,24-Oct,16-Nov,1-Dec,-
White-winged Crossbill,*,18-Oct,31-Oct,17-Nov,2-Dec,12-Dec
Cave Swallow,*,21-Oct,2-Nov,17-Nov,3-Dec,13-Dec
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Ending Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart[attr style=”color:green”]
Red-shouldered Hawk,**,24-Aug,5-Sep,22-Sep,13-Nov,22-Nov
American Woodcock,*,27-Sep,12-Oct,26-Oct,13-Nov,25-Nov
Double-crested Cormorant,***,-,-,5-Sep,14-Nov,7-Dec
Pine Siskin,***,24-Sep,9-Oct,29-Oct,14-Nov,27-Nov
Parasitic Jaeger,*,23-Aug,6-Sep,25-Sep,15-Nov,30-Nov
Northern Saw-whet Owl,*,3-Oct,16-Oct,1-Nov,15-Nov,24-Nov
Golden Eagle,*,8-Oct,19-Oct,2-Nov,16-Nov,27-Nov
Northern Goshawk,*,3-Oct,16-Oct,30-Oct,16-Nov,28-Nov
American Pipit,**,5-Sep,21-Sep,22-Oct,17-Nov,4-Dec
Evening Grosbeak,*,8-Oct,20-Oct,4-Nov,18-Nov,28-Nov
Northern Pintail,*,1-Sep,3-Oct,31-Oct,20-Nov,11-Dec
Dunlin,*,15-Sep,9-Oct,31-Oct,20-Nov,6-Dec
[/table]
[/expand]

Gulf Coast and Southeast

A weekend of moderate to heavy flights is in store for the region, as favorable conditions associated with the passage of the strong low pressure center moving off into the Atlantic spawn late season migration. The weekend’s flights become increasingly sparse by Monday as several new disturbances enter the scene. Although a few patches of marginal and favorable conditions may allow for local light and moderate flights through the remainder of the period, most movement will shut down through the end of the work week.

Bonaparte’s Gull, Ryan Schain

[expand title=”Beginning Arrivals %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Fox Sparrow,**,14-Nov,29-Nov,16-Dec,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Peaking Arrivals” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Greater Scaup,*,28-Oct,13-Nov,18-Dec,-,-
Hooded Merganser,***,29-Oct,13-Nov,11-Dec,-,-
Bonaparte’s Gull,**,30-Oct,14-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
Ring-billed Gull,***,25-Oct,15-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

Great Plains

A generally unfavorable first half of the period for migration will see isolated light to moderate flights at best. The middle of the period will see the first chance for slightly more intense flights, depending on the extent of lighter and more favorably directed winds. But it is not until the very end of the period that favorable conditions arrive. With them, to end the week, moderate and locally heavy movements will take flight, particularly in the northern and central Plains.

Common Merganser, Ryan Schain

Species on the Move

[expand title=”Beginning Arrivals %(%span style=’font-size: 10px; vertical-align: super;’%)%%(%a href=’https://birdcast.org/news/definitions-species-arrivals-regions-and-migration-amounts/#definitions’ target=’_blank’%)%What is this?%(%/a%)%%(%/span%)%” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Trumpeter Swan,***,17-Nov,25-Nov,After Dec 31,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Peaking Arrivals” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx[attr style=”color:green”],Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure,Last Migrants Depart
Common Goldeneye,***,1-Nov,13-Nov,3-Dec,-,-
Common Merganser,***,1-Nov,14-Nov,8-Dec,-,-
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Beginning Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart
Lesser Scaup,***,14-Oct,26-Oct,13-Nov,28-Nov,11-Dec
Bonaparte’s Gull,***,12-Oct,27-Oct,14-Nov,1-Dec,14-Dec
Greater Scaup,*,19-Oct,1-Nov,16-Nov,1-Dec,10-Dec
Mallard,***,11-Oct,26-Oct,17-Nov,3-Dec,-
Black Scoter,*,24-Oct,5-Nov,19-Nov,4-Dec,15-Dec
Bufflehead,***,20-Oct,3-Nov,19-Nov,3-Dec,13-Dec
Hooded Merganser,***,17-Oct,30-Oct,20-Nov,2-Dec,11-Dec
Red-breasted Merganser,***,25-Oct,5-Nov,20-Nov,4-Dec,13-Dec
Snow Goose,***,18-Oct,1-Nov,20-Nov,4-Dec,15-Dec
[/table]
[/expand]

[expand title=”Ending Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak,Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart[attr style=”color:green”]
Greater Yellowlegs,***,-,1-Aug,26-Oct,13-Nov,25-Nov
Red-winged Blackbird,***,9-Sep,22-Sep,24-Oct,13-Nov,27-Nov
Red-tailed Hawk,**,8-Sep,28-Sep,29-Oct,14-Nov,25-Nov
Black-bellied Plover,*,20-Jul,30-Jul,29-Sep,15-Nov,28-Nov
Sandhill Crane,***,5-Oct,16-Oct,30-Oct,15-Nov,25-Nov
Surf Scoter,*,26-Sep,10-Oct,28-Oct,15-Nov,30-Nov
American White Pelican,***,22-Aug,9-Sep,16-Oct,18-Nov,9-Dec
Tundra Swan,**,28-Sep,15-Oct,30-Oct,18-Nov,30-Nov
Green-winged Teal,***,7-Oct,19-Oct,4-Nov,19-Nov,2-Dec
Northern Pintail,***,8-Oct,20-Oct,4-Nov,19-Nov,1-Dec
Ring-necked Duck,***,8-Oct,20-Oct,7-Nov,19-Nov,29-Nov
Western Grebe,***,2-Sep,18-Oct,31-Oct,19-Nov,3-Dec
American Wigeon,***,5-Oct,18-Oct,4-Nov,20-Nov,3-Dec
Gadwall,***,8-Oct,20-Oct,7-Nov,20-Nov,1-Dec
Pied-billed Grebe,***,30-Aug,12-Sep,31-Oct,20-Nov,6-Dec
Ruddy Duck,***,8-Oct,20-Oct,4-Nov,20-Nov,4-Dec
[/table]
[/expand]

West

A quiet weekend of unfavorable conditions will see most late season migrants stay on the ground. But Monday through Wednesday, an area of favorable conditions spreads from the Pacific Coast through the Rockies and portions of the Desert Southwest, spawning one of the last, reasonably diverse, light to moderate flights of the season. Another pulse of movements will come at the end of the week, as favorable conditions return, but this time in more northern locations.

American Coot, Ryan Schain

Species on the Move

[expand title=”Beginning Departures” tag=”h3″]
[table sort=”,,,,asc” tablesorter=”true”]
Species,Noticeability[attr style=”color:orange”],Migrants Begin Arriving,Rapid Migrant Influx,Peak[attr style=”color:green”],Rapid Migrant Departure[attr style=”color:green”],Last Migrants Depart
American Coot,**,5-Sep,13-Oct,17-Nov,5-Dec,-
Long-tailed Duck,*,14-Oct,28-Oct,18-Nov,1-Dec,10-Dec
Rusty Blackbird,*,16-Oct,30-Oct,18-Nov,2-Dec,12-Dec
Sandhill Crane,*,12-Sep,24-Sep,18-Nov,3-Dec,12-Dec
American Wigeon,*,3-Sep,19-Oct,20-Nov,4-Dec,16-Dec
[/table]
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